I had an idea the other morning for how to search over an adjacent possibility space for new opportunities using probability.
Adjacent possibles
Adjacent possibilities in innovation refer to opportunities that are closely related to a company’s existing products, services, technologies, or markets. These are potential extensions or evolutions of what a company already does well, leveraging existing capabilities with reduced risk compared to entirely new ventures
• Markets: What 'adjacent' markets could you easily/quickly expand into?
• Products: What new products related to your existing offering could you spin up easily/quickly?
• Technology: What existing technologies that you already use could be easily/quickly leveraged to innovate?
Adjacent probables
To model adjacent probabilities we might apply probability theory to each possibility, focusing on assessing the likelihood of the opportunity being successful or viable. This would involve quantifying uncertainty and on-going use of Bayesian probability to update our assumptions when we learn new information
Outline
A back-of-the-envelope sketch of how this might be done could include the following:
Identify the factors that influence the success of each adjacent possibility
• Market demand: Low, Moderate, High
• Competitive seascape: Blue, Purple, Red
• Technological feasibility: Low, Moderate, High
• Resource availability: Low, Moderate, High
Sort the possibilities based on how many factors give a positive outlook
Highest-scoring possibilities at the top, lowest-scoring possibilities at the bottom. Based on the table above, P3 > P1 & P2
The opportunities at the top are a good starting point for exploration
In the table above, P3, is a good starting point. If multiple possibilities at the top have the same score, dive deeper into the factors that influence their success to break the tie